When it comes to judicial confirmations, predictions about what President Obama might achieve in a Republican-controlled Senate have not been optimistic. Some congressional scholars have said that a “total shutdown” of confirmations is “not out of the question,” and that a “Republican Senate would undoubtedly stop confirmation on virtually all Obama-nominated judges[.]” Yesterday, Talking Points Memo quoted several conservative lawyers who agreed that a Republican Senate would dramatically restrict the president’s ability to select and appoint federal judges, and today’s New York Times editorial said that “Republicans would . . . be certain to block Mr. Obama’s choices for judgeships—all but guaranteeing a judicial crisis unless the president agreed to conservative choices.”
Such pessimism is born of the obstruction and incendiary vitriol that Senate Republicans have used following last November’s Senate rules reform. Facing unprecedented wholesale obstruction that prevented the Senate from confirming three D.C. Circuit judges and a key executive nominee, Senate Democrats reduced the threshold for most nominations from 60 to a majority of those voting. In response, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell warned, “You’ll regret this, and you may regret this a lot sooner than you think.” Since then, Republicans have not consented to a single judicial confirmation vote, even for noncontroversial nominees later confirmed unanimously. The result has been a long line of needless cloture votes and more than 400 hours of wasted floor time.
But it would be myopic to focus solely on this initial response to rules reform and conclude that, with a Republican majority, the confirmation process will grind to a halt. After all, political rancor has always been part and parcel of judicial nominations. Republicans certainly have upped the ante, first with their blockade of the D.C. Circuit, and then with mindless, wasteful delays for every judicial nominee, but opposition party blustering about nominations is nothing new.
It’s helpful, therefore, to look at judicial appointments through a wider historical lens, a perspective that reveals signs of promise. Each of the three preceding two-term presidents—Presidents George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Ronald Reagan—faced an opposition Senate during his last two years in office. But in each case, about 20 percent of their total judicial appointments were confirmed during that time. Put another way, for all three presidents, 20 percent of their total confirmations came during the last 25 percent of their time in office:
| Ronald Reagan | ||||
| Court | Total Confirmed | Confirmed first 6 years | Confirmed last 2 years | % confirmed last 2 years |
| District Court Judges | 296 | 229 | 67 | 22.6% |
| Circuit Court Judges | 83 | 66 | 17 | 20.5% |
| Total: | 379 | 295 | 84 | 22.2% |
| Bill Clinton | ||||
| Court | Total Confirmed | Confirmed first 6 years | Confirmed last 2 years | % confirmed last 2 years |
| District Court Judges | 310 | 252 | 58 | 18.7% |
| Circuit Court Judges | 65 | 50 | 15 | 23.1% |
| Total: | 375 | 302 | 73 | 19.5% |
| George W. Bush | ||||
| Court | Total Confirmed | Confirmed first 6 years | Confirmed last 2 years | % confirmed last 2 years |
| District Court Judges | 263 | 205 | 58 | 22.1% |
| Circuit Court Judges | 61 | 51 | 10 | 16.4% |
| Total: | 324 | 256 | 68 | 21% |
That is not to say that confirmations did not slow down. According to data from the Congressional Research Service, President Clinton had only a 62 percent confirmation rate in his last two years (compared to 85 percent overall), and the Senate left 41 nominees pending at the end of the 106th Congress. Similarly, the last Senate of the Bush administration confirmed judicial nominees at a rate of 65 percent (compared to 87 percent for Bush’s entire two terms), and left 30 nominees pending.
Nonetheless, these data show that President Obama can continue to appoint federal judges throughout the remainder of his term, and that neither the White House nor Senate Democrats should yield to the narrative of an inevitable confirmation shutdown. Even before the next Congress, the Senate should confirm all of the 25 district court nominees already pending on the Senate calendar or waiting for a committee vote. Indeed, 16 of these nominees have the express support of their home-state Republican senators. Then, assuming President Obama matches the total of George W. Bush—the lowest of the last three two-term presidents—he would add 68 more confirmations during his final two years in office. Depending in part on which judges take senior status or retire, these numbers reflect a meaningful opportunity for the president to shape the judiciary and enhance his judicial legacy.
Still, some argue that, even assuming that judicial confirmations remain possible, the White House will have to compromise with Republican Senators and nominate more conservative judges. If that’s true, professionally diverse lawyers who have experience advocating for individual rights, such as public defenders, public interest lawyers, and plaintiffs’ lawyers, could be out of luck. But again, history suggests otherwise.
In 2000, President Clinton’s last year in office, the Senate confirmed Richard A. Paez and Marsha Berzon to the Ninth Circuit after both faced lengthy partisan opposition. It took more than 1500 days for Judge Paez to be confirmed, which at the time was the longest wait for any judicial nominee in American history. Paez had practiced at several public interest organizations and Legal Aid in Los Angeles. Berzon had primarily represented labor unions and employees at a small firm that she co-founded. Then-Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, R-Miss., displeased that two public interest lawyers might serve on a federal court of appeals, lamented that “[t]he [Ninth] Circuit is out of control, and these nominees will only make it worse.” Yet 14 Republicans broke ranks with their leadership, and joined every Democratic member to confirm Paez 59-39. Berzon was confirmed by an even wider margin, 64-34.
Examples of Republican success are also instructive. In 2007, President George W. Bush’s penultimate year in office, the Democratic-controlled Senate confirmed Leslie Southwick to the Fifth Circuit, despite widespread opposition from Senate Democrats and civil rights groups. Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., opposed Southwick because, as a state court judge, Southwick had “joined decisions that demonstrate insensitivity to—and disinterest in—the cause of civil rights.” Assistant Majority Leader Dick Durbin, D-Ill., said that Southwick “has lost the confidence of the civil rights community . . . across the Nation.” But despite this controversy, and the widely-held view that Southwick was a movement conservative nominated to advance President Bush’s agenda, he was confirmed with the support of nine Democrats, 59-38.
One final example is worth noting. Though he was only a one-term president (and thus not a lame duck during his last two years), President George H.W. Bush appointed Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court in 1991, when Democrats controlled the Senate during the 102nd Congress. Notwithstanding Thomas’s conservative record, contentious confirmation hearings, and swirling controversy arising out of sexual harassment allegations, 11 Democratic Senators voted to replace civil rights icon Thurgood Marshall with Clarence Thomas. It is not often one can say this, but over the next two years, on the issue of judicial confirmations if nothing else, Justice Thomas should provide President Obama with great hope.
Finally, there’s this: Predicting a confirmation shutdown ignores what Senate Republicans still have at stake. Of the eight pending judicial nominees yet to have a confirmation hearing (and therefore less likely to be confirmed this year), six are from states with at least one Republican Senator. These include three Texas nominees that Republican Senators John Cornyn and Ted Cruz—both members of the Senate Judiciary Committee—recommended for nomination. Moreover, 25 of the 32 current vacancies without a nominee are in states with at least one Republican Senator, including seven that, because of their burdensome caseloads, are considered “judicial emergencies.” (Senator Charles Grassley, the presumptive Republican Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, has often said that judicial emergencies should be a priority.) On top of that, 16 more judges from red or split states have already announced they will retire or take senior status next year. Thus, a Republican shutdown of judicial confirmations will not be a simple rebuke of the president and Senate Democrats; it will directly harm the very constituents the new majority of Senators were elected to serve.



